All last week, I saw news article after news article and social media post talking about Q3 data showing home values dropped 1% from last year in the Charlottesville area. Some influencers and agents even called it a "wake-up call."

Let me put this in perspective.

The Real Numbers Behind the Headlines

First, 1% is the difference of about $5,000 on the average home's sale price from last year. Second, these headlines are designed to grab clicks. Not only is a 1% shift from Q3 expected, but I've been saying for the last two years that home prices are going to stay relatively flat in appreciation until home sellers and buyers get a better indication of what's happening in our economy, in America, and with interest rates.

And third, before I get too heated, yes, home values didn't grow in Q3 from a year ago. You might say, "Well Craig, the stock market is up 27% in Q3. I should have just invested in the stock market."

Real Estate Isn't a Short-Term Investment

I would then say that only a fool buys a house for just a year. Owning real estate is not about short-term investment. It's about owning shelter for you and your family. No one should be buying a home in Q3 of last year and then turning around to sell it in Q3 of this year. Owning real estate is for the long term.

In the end, you may have a year where home values don't appreciate, but over the course of 5-10 years, that money you've been paying each month grows, your home values do grow, and you actually make money on your home when you sell.

What's Really Happening in Central Virginia

For the past few months, we've had roughly the same amount of inventory. But what the data doesn't show is the number of sellers waiting to list in the spring, or even late winter months like January and February.

Last week I mentioned that I'm advising sellers to wait till 2026 to sell their home, and this week in our weekly office meetings at Avenue Realty, several agents mentioned that their sellers are also waiting to list in January or February.

So what does this all mean for us here in Central Virginia? Like I've said in the past, most sellers are also buyers. They sell their home to buy another. So if more homes come on the market in January and February, and those sellers go out and buy, we may see a large uptick in both buyer demand and inventory.

The real thing to watch will be interest rates. Because if rates stay elevated and don't come down to 6%, we may still have sellers hold on to their houses.

Current Market Snapshot

Charlottesville Area:

• Homes Listed This Week: 52 (Last Week: 41)

• Median Sold Price: $554,941 (Last Week: $530,476)

• Months of Inventory: 3.08

Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton:

• Homes Listed This Week: 57 (Last Week: 36)

• Median Sold Price: $350,010 (Last Week: $363,000)

• Months of Inventory: 2.5

Current Rate: 6.34% with a 30-year fixed conventional mortgage (Last Week: 6.37%)

The Bottom Line

Don't let sensational headlines dictate your real estate decisions. The Charlottesville market remains stable, and for those thinking long-term, which you should be, the fundamentals of homeownership remain strong. Building equity, owning your shelter, and planning for the future matter far more than quarterly fluctuations.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in 2026, now's the time to start planning your strategy. Reach out for a free pricing strategy session to see where your home stands in today's market.