Is the Market Crashing? The Data Says "No."

If you have been watching the real estate market in Central Virginia, you might have noticed a strange trend. Buyer demand is up significantly, yet the number of homes for sale is dropping.

Nationally, weekly Pending Home Sales data (contracts signed) is up a healthy 15.4% from this time last year. This double-digit increase proves that buyer demand is still very much present, even with interest rates currently hovering in the mid-6s.

While our Central Virginia market usually lags slightly behind national trends, our local numbers are incredibly strong. In just the past week, 121 homes went under contract in our area. If we can maintain this pace through the typically slow winter months, we are looking at a very robust turnout of buyers come spring.

The "Seller Strike": Why Inventory is Vanishing

Despite high buyer demand, inventory is slowly disappearing. But it’s not because homes are selling instantly—it’s because sellers are changing their strategy.

Sellers are actively taking their homes off the market. Rather than lowering their prices to meet a specific buyer threshold, many sellers are simply delisting. They are choosing to rent the property out or wait for a more opportune time to sell.

This is the key difference between today and the 2008 housing crash. Back then, sellers were financially distressed and had to sell, leading to massive price drops. Today, homeowners are well-qualified and locked into low interest rates. They don't need to sell unless they get their price.

Local Market Statistics (Weekly Update)

Here is a snapshot of how the market performed this past week compared to the week prior.

Charlottesville Area

• Homes Listed: 46 (Down from 52 last week)

• Median Sold Price: $545,000 (Down slightly from $554,941)

• Months of Inventory: 2.9 Months

Augusta County, Waynesboro & Staunton

• Homes Listed: 45 (Down from 57 last week)

• Median Sold Price: $363,000 (Up from $350,010)

• Months of Inventory: 2.4 Months

Current Mortgage Rates

• 30-Year Fixed Conventional: 6.38% (Up slightly from 6.34% last week)

My Home of The Week: Historic Downtown Staunton

Earlier this year, I helped a buyer secure a historic home on W Frederick in Staunton. Every time I drove past the house on the hill nearby, I thought, "Man, that is a cool house."

I’ve been waiting for it to hit the market, and it finally has.

645 W Frederick St | Downtown Staunton, VA

• Specs: 5 Bedroom, 3.5 Bathroom, 3,600 Sqft

• Price: Asking $699,000

• Status: 9 Days on the Market

• Listed by Nest Realty

Click here to see the interior photos

Local Spotlight: The Bridge That "Shocks" You

The new pedestrian bridge in Charlottesville is officially open, and it is generating a lot of conversation. I went to check it out myself and filmed a video giving my very critical take on the construction—specifically how it was designed to "shock" users (you’ll have to watch the video to catch the sarcasm!).

While one online commenter called me "obtuse" for the joke, it sparked a healthy debate. Was this project really worth the millions spent on it?

Watch my video review on Instagram here

Future Outlook: What to Expect in 2026

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) recently released an optimistic forecast. They are projecting that home prices will climb about 4% nationally next year, with sales jumping 14%.

The market is solid. Significant price declines are highly unlikely due to the continued supply shortage and the pent-up buyer demand we are seeing right now.

Are you curious about your home's current value in this shifting market? Reach out for a free pricing strategy session.